Thorchain (RUNE) Price Estimate January : Boom or Bust?
Datum: 15.06.2024
RUNE is the native token of Thorchain, a decentralized protocol that facilitates cross-chain asset swaps. In this article, we will analyze the RUNE price predictions from both a technical and fundamental perspective. Currently, RUNE is priced at $1.32, reflecting a decline of more than 80% from its highs in March 2022. However, what is the future trajectory of RUNE's price, and what should we anticipate for January 2023? It’s important to remember that many other factors, such as your investment time frame, risk tolerance, and leverage margin, should be considered when taking a position.

The Cross-Chain Crypto Swapping Protocol

Thorchain is a decentralized blockchain protocol that allows seamless crypto-asset swaps across different blockchains. Founded in 2018 by a largely anonymous team of developers, Thorchain is driven by its community and operates autonomously. This decentralized nature means the community plays a large role in shaping the protocol’s public image.

Thorchain enables blockchain-to-blockchain swaps directly from users’ wallets, supporting a variety of products and services that integrate the protocol’s cross-chain infrastructure. The network is operated by anonymous node operators, and the protocol incentivizes liquidity providers and node operators by maximizing their earnings.

“The emissions from the Thorchain protocol follow a fixed schedule based on block reward calculations. Typically, 67% of the emissions are given to Nodes, and 33% to Liquidity Providers, although this split can adjust depending on the network’s bonding conditions.”
– Thorchain Team

Examining RUNE in Detail

RUNE is the native token of the Thorchain network, essential for conducting swaps on the platform. It can also serve as a reward for liquidity providers, pay transaction fees, and secure the Thorchain network through staking.

At present, RUNE’s value is down over 80% from its March 2022 highs, and the potential for further decline remains a concern. The collapse of FTX in November introduced increased uncertainty in the crypto market, and hawkish messages from central banks put additional pressure on the sector. Cryptocurrency values remain closely linked to stock markets, which leaves the sector vulnerable to macroeconomic fluctuations.

Scott Wren, Senior Global Market Strategist at Wells Fargo Investment, warned that financial markets could face further turbulence in the upcoming weeks. He cautioned that crypto selloffs may accelerate if Bitcoin drops below the $16,000 threshold. Caleb Franzen, Senior Market Analyst at Cubic Analytics, predicts Bitcoin could fall towards $14,000, which would likely pull RUNE’s price lower as well.

RUNE Teknisk analys

Since November 6, 2022, RUNE has dropped from $1.72 to $1, with the current price at $1.32. It may struggle to maintain support above the $1.20 mark in the coming days. A break below this level could suggest that RUNE is headed back towards $1.

The chart below highlights the trendline; as long as RUNE’s price remains below this line, it’s difficult to predict a trend reversal. Currently, the price remains within the “SELL-ZONE.”

Key Support and Resistance Levels for RUNE

On the chart from May 2022, important support and resistance levels are marked to assist traders in identifying potential price movements. RUNE remains under selling pressure, but if it breaks above the $1.80 resistance, the next target could be $2. The current support level is $1.20, and if RUNE falls below this, it will signal a “SELL” and lead to a potential drop to $1. If RUNE falls below $1, the next support could be around $0.80.

Factors Supporting an Increase in RUNE’s Price

While the upside potential for RUNE in January 2023 seems limited, a price break above $1.80 could bring the next resistance at $2. RUNE’s fundamentals are closely linked to the broader cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin. If Bitcoin rises past the $20,000 resistance again, we could see RUNE’s price climb accordingly.

Potential Risks for RUNE’s Decline

RUNE has dropped more than 80% since January 2022, and market participants should remain cautious of further losses. Recent negative events have heightened uncertainty in the crypto space. Arcane Research highlighted the importance of monitoring financial troubles within Digital Currency Group (DCG).

“A bankruptcy of Digital Currency Group would be catastrophic for the markets. Liquidation of their assets would force the selling off of large positions in GBTC and other Grayscale trusts. Companies associated with DCG struggled in 2022 due to massive institutional fund outflows, and the lack of liquidity could trigger another market crash.”
– Arcane Research

The current support level for RUNE is $1.20; a break below this could signal further declines to $1. Additionally, RUNE’s price remains tied to Bitcoin, so if Bitcoin falls below the $16,000 mark again, RUNE’s price could suffer as well.

Expert Opinions on RUNE’s Future

RUNE’s fundamentals remain closely connected to the broader crypto market, which makes it susceptible to additional downtrends. Analysts agree that RUNE’s price could fall even further before the market finds its bottom. Many predict a global recession, which may put even more downward pressure on both stocks and cryptocurrencies. As a result, experts recommend adopting a defensive investment strategy in early 2023.

Zhou Wei, former CFO of Binance and CEO of Coins.ph, emphasized that the crypto market will likely remain subdued for an extended period due to stricter regulations following FTX’s collapse.

Villkor: Crypto investments are highly volatile and not suitable for everyone. Never invest more than you can afford to lose. The information provided here is for educational purposes and should not be considered as financial or investment advice.

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